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Thailand - Thai League 1
Regular Season - 28
Rayong Provincial Stadium· Rayong
Sunday, April 26, 2026
11:00
Rayong
PPG 1.83
1-1
HIT CS2
Lamphun Warrior
PPG 0.85
Over3.5· +69.0%
🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
95% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Home
56.2%
Odds: 2.40
EV: +34.9%
Draw
22.8%
Odds: 3.25
EV: -25.9%
Away
21.0%
Odds: 2.65
EV: -44.4%
Model lean:
Over 2.5
Result: Draw ✘
Goals Markets
Over 2.5
60.5%
Odds: 1.85
+11.9%
Over 3.5
52.8%
Odds: 3.20
+69.0%
BTTS
58.5%
Odds: 1.65
-3.5%
O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘
BTTS YES → YES ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st
2-1
✘
2nd
1-1
✔
3rd
3-1
✘
4th
2-0
✘
5th
3-0
✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Rayong
2.62
Lamphun Warrior
1.19
Model Suggestion
Over 2.5
+11.9%
ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market:
Over 2.5.
Raw EV leader:
Over3.5(+69.0%)
Verdict & Form
🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
95%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME
Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.83) vs P(Home)=56.2%