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Rayong vs Lamphun Warrior Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Regular Season - 28 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 11:00

Rayong

PPG 1.83 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Lamphun Warrior

PPG 0.85 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.5% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+11.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-12.6%0-21.6%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-05.8%1-16.9%1-24.1%1-31.6%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.6%2-19.1%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.7%3-17.9%3-24.7%3-31.9%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-08.2%4+-19.7%4+-25.8%4+-32.3%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.2% 41.7% 2.40 +34.9%

Draw 22.8% 30.8% 3.25 -25.9%

Away win 21.0% 37.7% 2.65 -44.4%

Over 2.5 60.5% 54.1% 1.85 +11.9%

Over 3.5 52.8% 31.3% 3.20 +69.0%

BTTS 58.5% 60.6% 1.65 -3.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob58.5%

H 56% / xG 2.6-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.1%

#2 1–1✓ 6.9%

#3 3–1 7.9%

#4 2–0 7.6%

#5 3–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rayong2.6

Lamphun Warrior1.2

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 52.8%

Form & verdict PPG

RAYONG · PPG 1.83

LAMPHUN WARRIOR · PPG 0.85

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.83) vs P(Home)=56.2%

Win probability 1X2

Rayong (H) 56.2%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +34.9%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -25.9%

Lamphun Warrior (A) 21.0%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -44.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rayong face Lamphun Warrior in Thailand - Thai League 1 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rayong a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Lamphun Warrior 21%, so Rayong are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Rayong and 1.2 for Lamphun Warrior (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rayong are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 0.85 for Lamphun Warrior. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +69.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Rayong vs Lamphun Warrior Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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