Today / Shenzhen vs Liaoning Tieren

Shenzhen vs Liaoning Tieren Prediction

Sunday, April 26, 2026

Shenzhen

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Liaoning Tieren

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-12.6%0-21.7%0-30.7%0-4+0.3%1 1-05.4%1-16.9%1-24.3%1-31.8%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.1%2-19.0%2-25.6%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-06.2%3-17.8%3-24.9%3-32.1%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-07.6%4+-19.5%4+-26.0%4+-32.5%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.0% — — —

Draw 23.1% — — —

Away win 20.9% — — —

Over 2.5 60.5% — — —

Over 3.5 54.1% — — —

BTTS 58.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.5%

H 56% / xG 2.6-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.0%

#2 1–1 6.9%

#3 3–1 7.8%

#4 2–0 7.1%

#5 3–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shenzhen2.6

Liaoning Tieren1.3

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 54.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SHENZHEN · PPG 1.50

LIAONING TIEREN · PPG 0.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=56.0%

Win probability 1X2

Shenzhen (H) 56.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Liaoning Tieren (A) 20.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Shenzhen face Liaoning Tieren on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shenzhen a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Liaoning Tieren 21%, so Shenzhen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Shenzhen and 1.3 for Liaoning Tieren (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shenzhen are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.25 for Liaoning Tieren.

Shenzhen vs Liaoning Tieren Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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