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Kryvbas KR vs Dynamo Kyiv Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Matchday 25 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 10:00

Kryvbas KR

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLD

5 – 6

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Dynamo Kyiv

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 62% chance

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.5% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-15.7%0-25.6%0-33.7%0-4+2.8%1 1-04.6%1-19.0%1-28.8%1-35.8%1-4+4.4%2 2-03.6%2-17.1%2-26.9%2-34.5%2-4+3.5%3 3-01.9%3-13.7%3-23.6%3-32.4%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-12.1%4+-22.0%4+-31.3%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.3% 15.4% 6.50 +123.0%

Draw 28.2% 23.8% 4.20 +18.4%

Away win 37.5% 71.4% 1.40 -47.5%

Over 2.5 60.5% 62.5% 1.60 -3.2%

Over 3.5 47.1% 40.0% 2.50 +17.8%

BTTS 58.5% 58.8% 1.70 -0.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 13.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-6

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob58.5%

D 28% / xG 1.6-2.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1 7.1%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 1–3 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kryvbas KR1.6

Dynamo Kyiv2.0

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 47.1%

Form & verdict PPG

KRYVBAS KR · PPG 2.00

DYNAMO KYIV · PPG 1.75

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

62%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Kryvbas KR (H) 34.3%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +123.0%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +18.4%

Dynamo Kyiv (A) 37.5%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -47.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kryvbas KR face Dynamo Kyiv in Ukraine - Premier League on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kryvbas KR a 34% chance, the draw 28% and Dynamo Kyiv 38%, so Dynamo Kyiv are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Kryvbas KR and 2.0 for Dynamo Kyiv (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kryvbas KR are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.75 for Dynamo Kyiv. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +123.0%. This match finished 5-6.

Kryvbas KR vs Dynamo Kyiv Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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