Today / S. Sebastian R. vs Real Madrid C

S. Sebastian R. vs Real Madrid C Prediction

Sunday, April 26, 2026

S. Sebastian R.

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Real Madrid C

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=60.2%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-13.7%0-21.1%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-013.8%1-18.0%1-22.3%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.1%2-18.7%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.0%3-16.3%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-010.0%4+-15.7%4+-21.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.2% — — —

Draw 24.8% — — —

Away win 15.0% — — —

Over 2.5 51.6% — — —

Over 3.5 29.9% — — —

BTTS 49.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob49.5%

H 60% / xG 2.2-0.6 / O2.5 52% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.1%

#2 1–0 13.8%

#3 3–0 11.0%

#4 1–1✓ 8.0%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

S. Sebastian R.2.2

Real Madrid C0.6

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.9%

Form & verdict PPG

S. SEBASTIAN R. · PPG 2.00

REAL MADRID C · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=60.2%

Win probability 1X2

S. Sebastian R. (H) 60.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Real Madrid C (A) 15.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

S. Sebastian R. face Real Madrid C on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives S. Sebastian R. a 60% chance, the draw 25% and Real Madrid C 15%, so S. Sebastian R. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for S. Sebastian R. and 0.6 for Real Madrid C (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, S. Sebastian R. are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.06 for Real Madrid C. This match finished 1-1.

S. Sebastian R. vs Real Madrid C Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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