Today / CD Coria vs Ilicitano

CD Coria vs Ilicitano Prediction

Sunday, April 26, 2026

CD Coria
PPG 2.00 · HOME
4 – 0
FULL TIME
✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5
Ilicitano
PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-14.1%0-22.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-07.8%1-19.0%1-25.2%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.5%2-19.8%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.2%3-17.1%3-24.1%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-05.6%4+-16.4%4+-23.7%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.5%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 48.7%
Draw 26.7%
Away win 24.6%
Over 2.5 59.0%
Over 3.5 42.6%
BTTS 58.5%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 4-0
xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.5%

H 49% / xG 2.2-1.1 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%
#2 2–1 9.8%
#3 2–0 8.5%
#4 3–1 7.1%
#5 1–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CD Coria2.2
Ilicitano1.1

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 42.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CD CORIA · PPG 2.00

ILICITANO · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
52%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

CD Coria (H) 48.7%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 26.7%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Ilicitano (A) 24.6%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

CD Coria face Ilicitano on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CD Coria a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Ilicitano 25%, so CD Coria are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for CD Coria and 1.1 for Ilicitano (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CD Coria are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.44 for Ilicitano. This match finished 4-0.

PredictVantage

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