UCAM Murcia vs Real Jaen Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 Group 4 - 33 Estadio de La Condomina· Murcia Sunday, April 26, 2026 10:00

UCAM Murcia PPG 2.31

1-2 MISS

Real Jaen PPG 1.19

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

UCAM Murcia face Real Jaen in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UCAM Murcia a 51% chance, the draw 28% and Real Jaen 21%, so UCAM Murcia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for UCAM Murcia and 0.9 for Real Jaen (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UCAM Murcia are averaging 2.31 points per game versus 1.19 for Real Jaen. This match finished 1-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 51.4%

Odds: — EV: —

Draw 27.6%

Odds: — EV: —

Away 21.0%

Odds: — EV: —

Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 59.0% Odds: — —

Over 3.5 33.7% Odds: — —

BTTS 53.4% Odds: — —

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0 ✘

2nd 1-1 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 3-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

UCAM Murcia

2.06

Real Jaen

0.87

Model SuggestionOver 2.5  MODEL ONLY
ROI tracking: odds not available yet, so this is a model suggestion only.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.31) vs P(Home)=51.4%