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UCAM Murcia vs Real Jaen Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Group 4 - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 10:00

UCAM Murcia

PPG 2.31 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Real Jaen

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-14.7%0-22.0%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.0%1-19.6%1-24.2%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.3%2-19.9%2-24.3%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.8%3-16.8%3-22.9%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.4%4+-15.6%4+-22.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.4% — — —

Draw 27.6% — — —

Away win 21.0% — — —

Over 2.5 59.0% — — —

Over 3.5 33.7% — — —

BTTS 53.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 10.3%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.4%

H 51% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.3%

#2 1–1 9.6%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 11.0%

#5 3–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UCAM Murcia2.1

Real Jaen0.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 33.7%

Form & verdict PPG

UCAM MURCIA · PPG 2.31

REAL JAEN · PPG 1.19

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.31) vs P(Home)=51.4%

Win probability 1X2

UCAM Murcia (H) 51.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Real Jaen (A) 21.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

UCAM Murcia face Real Jaen in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UCAM Murcia a 51% chance, the draw 28% and Real Jaen 21%, so UCAM Murcia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for UCAM Murcia and 0.9 for Real Jaen (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UCAM Murcia are averaging 2.31 points per game versus 1.19 for Real Jaen. This match finished 1-2.

UCAM Murcia vs Real Jaen Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Match Preview & Prediction

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