Today / Puente Genil vs A. Malagueno

Puente Genil vs A. Malagueno Prediction

Sunday, April 26, 2026

Puente Genil

PPG 1.69 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

A. Malagueno

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.69) vs P(Home)=61.5%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-13.4%0-21.0%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-013.2%1-17.7%1-22.2%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.9%2-18.7%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.2%3-16.5%3-21.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-010.7%4+-16.2%4+-21.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.5% — — —

Draw 24.6% — — —

Away win 13.9% — — —

Over 2.5 58.3% — — —

Over 3.5 31.6% — — —

BTTS 49.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob49.5%

H 62% / xG 2.3-0.6 / O2.5 58% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.9%

#2 1–0 13.2%

#3 3–0 11.2%

#4 1–1 7.7%

#5 2–1✓ 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Puente Genil2.3

A. Malagueno0.6

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.3% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PUENTE GENIL · PPG 1.69

A. MALAGUENO · PPG 0.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.69) vs P(Home)=61.5%

Win probability 1X2

Puente Genil (H) 61.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

A. Malagueno (A) 13.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Puente Genil face A. Malagueno on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Puente Genil a 62% chance, the draw 25% and A. Malagueno 14%, so Puente Genil are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Puente Genil and 0.6 for A. Malagueno (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Puente Genil are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 0.20 for A. Malagueno. This match finished 2-1.

Puente Genil vs A. Malagueno Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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