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Melilla vs Linares Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Group 4 - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 10:00

Melilla

PPG 1.75 · HOME

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Linares

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.4 puts the goal expectation near the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-16.3%0-22.2%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.3%1-110.8%1-23.8%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.0%2-19.2%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.4%3-15.3%3-21.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-13.3%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% — — —

Draw 28.5% — — —

Away win 21.8% — — —

Over 2.5 50.0% — — —

Over 3.5 22.5% — — —

BTTS 49.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 10.3%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.5%

H 50% / xG 1.7-0.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.3%

#2 2–0 13.0%

#3 1–1 10.8%

#4 0–0 8.9%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Melilla1.7

Linares0.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MELILLA · PPG 1.75

LINARES · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Melilla (H) 49.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Linares (A) 21.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Melilla face Linares in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Melilla a 50% chance, the draw 28% and Linares 22%, so Melilla are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Melilla and 0.7 for Linares (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Melilla are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.25 for Linares. This match finished 2-4.

Melilla vs Linares Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Match Preview & Prediction

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