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SD Ibiza vs Andratx Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

Group 3 - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 10:00

SD Ibiza

PPG 1.73 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Andratx

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.73) vs P(Home)=55.8%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-14.9%0-21.8%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.3%1-19.6%1-23.5%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.1%2-19.5%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.6%3-16.3%3-22.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.7%4+-14.9%4+-21.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.8% — — —

Draw 27.3% — — —

Away win 16.9% — — —

Over 2.5 51.6% — — —

Over 3.5 28.6% — — —

BTTS 52.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.3%

H 56% / xG 2.0-0.7 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.1%

#2 1–0 13.3%

#3 1–1 9.6%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 3–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SD Ibiza2.0

Andratx0.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SD IBIZA · PPG 1.73

ANDRATX · PPG 0.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.73) vs P(Home)=55.8%

Win probability 1X2

SD Ibiza (H) 55.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Andratx (A) 16.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

SD Ibiza face Andratx in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SD Ibiza a 56% chance, the draw 27% and Andratx 17%, so SD Ibiza are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for SD Ibiza and 0.7 for Andratx (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SD Ibiza are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 0.25 for Andratx. This match finished 2-2.

SD Ibiza vs Andratx Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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