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Poblense vs Porreres Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

Group 3 - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 10:00

Poblense

PPG 2.06 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Porreres

PPG 0.63 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.06) vs P(Home)=60.7%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.4%0-14.1%0-20.6%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-023.8%1-16.8%1-21.0%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-019.6%2-15.6%2-20.8%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-010.8%3-13.1%3-20.4%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-06.4%4+-11.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.7% — — —

Draw 29.7% — — —

Away win 9.6% — — —

Over 2.5 38.0% — — —

Over 3.5 13.2% — — —

BTTS 30.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob30.7%

H 61% / xG 1.6-0.3 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 31%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 23.8%

#2 2–0 19.6%

#3 0–0 14.4%

#4 3–0 10.8%

#5 1–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Poblense1.6

Porreres0.3

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 13.2%

Form & verdict PPG

POBLENSE · PPG 2.06

PORRERES · PPG 0.63

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.06) vs P(Home)=60.7%

Win probability 1X2

Poblense (H) 60.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 29.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Porreres (A) 9.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Poblense face Porreres in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Poblense a 61% chance, the draw 30% and Porreres 10%, so Poblense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Poblense and 0.3 for Porreres (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 31% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Poblense are averaging 2.06 points per game versus 0.63 for Porreres. This match finished 3-1.

Poblense vs Porreres Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 Predictions