Today / Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 / FC Barcelona B vs Atletic Lleida

FC Barcelona B vs Atletic Lleida Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

Group 3 - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 10:00

FC Barcelona B

PPG 1.88 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Atletic Lleida

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home team in GOOD form (1.88), Away POOR (0.73) - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-11.7%0-20.6%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-06.9%1-15.2%1-21.9%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.5%2-17.9%2-22.9%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.6%3-17.9%3-23.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-017.0%4+-112.7%4+-24.7%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 69.9% — — —

Draw 20.8% — — —

Away win 9.3% — — —

Over 2.5 60.5% — — —

Over 3.5 52.1% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.6%

H 70% / xG 3.0-0.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 10.6%

#2 2–0 10.5%

#3 4–0 8.0%

#4 3–1 7.9%

#5 2–1✓ 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Barcelona B3.0

Atletic Lleida0.7

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 52.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FC BARCELONA B · PPG 1.88

ATLETIC LLEIDA · PPG 0.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.88), Away POOR (0.73) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

FC Barcelona B (H) 69.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Atletic Lleida (A) 9.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Barcelona B face Atletic Lleida in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Barcelona B a 70% chance, the draw 21% and Atletic Lleida 9%, so FC Barcelona B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for FC Barcelona B and 0.7 for Atletic Lleida (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Barcelona B are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 0.73 for Atletic Lleida. This match finished 2-1.

FC Barcelona B vs Atletic Lleida Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 Predictions