Today / Rayo Cantabria vs Real Avila

Rayo Cantabria vs Real Avila Prediction

Sunday, April 26, 2026

Rayo Cantabria

PPG 1.63 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Real Avila

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-13.5%0-22.4%0-31.1%0-4+0.5%1 1-05.9%1-18.1%1-25.5%1-32.5%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.8%2-19.3%2-26.3%2-32.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-05.2%3-17.1%3-24.8%3-32.2%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-16.9%4+-24.7%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.5% — — —

Draw 25.2% — — —

Away win 26.3% — — —

Over 2.5 60.5% — — —

Over 3.5 49.6% — — —

BTTS 58.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob58.5%

H 48% / xG 2.3-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.1%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 3–1 7.1%

#4 2–0 6.8%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rayo Cantabria2.3

Real Avila1.4

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 49.6%

Form & verdict PPG

RAYO CANTABRIA · PPG 1.63

REAL AVILA · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.63), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Rayo Cantabria (H) 48.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Real Avila (A) 26.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Rayo Cantabria face Real Avila on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rayo Cantabria a 49% chance, the draw 25% and Real Avila 26%, so Rayo Cantabria are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Rayo Cantabria and 1.4 for Real Avila (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rayo Cantabria are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 1.50 for Real Avila. This match finished 4-1.

Rayo Cantabria vs Real Avila Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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