Today / D. Fabril vs Valladolid B

D. Fabril vs Valladolid B Prediction

Sunday, April 26, 2026

D. Fabril

PPG 2.38 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Valladolid B

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.38), Away AVERAGE (1.31) - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-11.5%0-20.5%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-06.9%1-14.6%1-21.6%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.8%2-17.3%2-22.5%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.4%3-17.7%3-22.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-019.7%4+-113.3%4+-24.5%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.2% — — —

Draw 20.6% — — —

Away win 9.2% — — —

Over 2.5 60.5% — — —

Over 3.5 53.2% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.6%

H 70% / xG 3.2-0.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 11.4%

#2 2–0 10.8%

#3 4–0 8.9%

#4 3–1 7.7%

#5 2–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

D. Fabril3.2

Valladolid B0.7

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 53.2%

Form & verdict PPG

D. FABRIL · PPG 2.38

VALLADOLID B · PPG 1.31

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.38), Away AVERAGE (1.31) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

D. Fabril (H) 70.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Valladolid B (A) 9.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

D. Fabril face Valladolid B on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. Fabril a 70% chance, the draw 21% and Valladolid B 9%, so D. Fabril are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for D. Fabril and 0.7 for Valladolid B (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. Fabril are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 1.31 for Valladolid B. This match finished 0-1.

D. Fabril vs Valladolid B Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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