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Lusitania FC vs Pacos Ferreira Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Regular Season - 31 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 10:00

Lusitania FC

PPG 1.27 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Pacos Ferreira

PPG 0.87 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.8% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-16.5%0-23.3%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.0%1-111.3%1-25.8%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.8%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.5%3-15.6%3-22.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-13.6%4+-21.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% 42.7% 2.34 +8.6%

Draw 28.3% 32.8% 3.05 -13.7%

Away win 25.3% 33.3% 3.00 -24.1%

Over 2.5 51.6% 45.5% 2.20 +13.5%

Over 3.5 29.9% 25.0% 4.00 +19.6%

BTTS 57.8% 54.6% 1.83 +5.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -30.0%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob57.8%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0✓ 9.5%

#4 1–0 11.0%

#5 0–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lusitania FC1.7

Pacos Ferreira1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.9%

Form & verdict PPG

LUSITANIA FC · PPG 1.27

PACOS FERREIRA · PPG 0.87

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.27) > Away POOR (0.87)

Win probability 1X2

Lusitania FC (H) 46.4%

ODDS 2.34 · IMPLIED 42.7% EV +8.6%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -13.7%

Pacos Ferreira (A) 25.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -24.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lusitania FC face Pacos Ferreira in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lusitania FC a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Pacos Ferreira 25%, so Lusitania FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Lusitania FC and 1.0 for Pacos Ferreira (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lusitania FC are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 0.87 for Pacos Ferreira. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +19.6%. This match finished 2-0.

Lusitania FC vs Pacos Ferreira Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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