Today / Ingolstadt W vs Mgladbach W

Ingolstadt W vs Mgladbach W Prediction

Sunday, April 26, 2026

Ingolstadt W
PPG 1.45 · HOME
1 – 2
FULL TIME
✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5
Mgladbach W
PPG 0.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-13.8%0-22.8%0-31.4%0-4+0.7%1 1-05.6%1-18.3%1-26.1%1-33.0%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.1%2-19.0%2-26.7%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-04.4%3-16.6%3-24.9%3-32.4%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-16.0%4+-24.4%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.1%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 46.3%
Draw 28.3%
Away win 25.4%
Over 2.5 60.5%
Over 3.5 49.9%
BTTS 58.5%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 1-2
xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob58.5%

H 46% / xG 2.2-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.3%
#2 2–1 9.0%
#3 2–2 6.7%
#4 3–1 6.6%
#5 1–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ingolstadt W2.2
Mgladbach W1.5

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 49.9%

Form & verdict PPG

INGOLSTADT W · PPG 1.45

MGLADBACH W · PPG 0.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
52%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.45) > Away POOR (0.73)

Win probability 1X2

Ingolstadt W (H) 46.3%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 28.3%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Mgladbach W (A) 25.4%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ingolstadt W face Mgladbach W on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ingolstadt W a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Mgladbach W 25%, so Ingolstadt W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Ingolstadt W and 1.5 for Mgladbach W (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ingolstadt W are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 0.73 for Mgladbach W. This match finished 1-2.

PredictVantage

Free daily football predictions across 240+ leagues. A Poisson-based model analyses team form, attack and defence strength, and live bookmaker odds to surface value bets — updated every day, graded every night.

18+ only. PredictVantage is for entertainment and informational purposes only. All predictions are model-generated and do not guarantee any outcome. Match dates and kick-off times come from third-party data and may change — confirm with official sources before betting. Gambling involves risk — never bet more than you can afford to lose. BeGambleAware.org