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Paloma vs ETSV Hamburg Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg

Hamburg - 32 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 08:45

Paloma

PPG 2.14 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

ETSV Hamburg

PPG 2.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.14), Away EXCELLENT (2.36)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-13.5%0-26.9%0-39.1%0-4+26.0%1 1-00.7%1-12.7%1-25.3%1-37.0%1-4+20.0%2 2-00.3%2-11.0%2-22.0%2-32.7%2-4+7.7%3 3-00.1%3-10.3%3-20.5%3-30.7%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 4.5% — — —

Draw 23.3% — — —

Away win 72.2% — — —

Over 2.5 70.6% — — —

Over 3.5 69.7% — — —

BTTS 57.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 74%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)4.0 BTTS prob57.8%

A 72% / xG 0.8-4.0 / O2.5 71% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–3 9.1%

#2 0–4 9.0%

#3 0–5 7.2%

#4 1–3 7.0%

#5 1–4 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paloma0.8

ETSV Hamburg4.0

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.6% · O3.5 PROB 69.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PALOMA · PPG 2.14

ETSV HAMBURG · PPG 2.36

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.14), Away EXCELLENT (2.36)

Win probability 1X2

Paloma (H) 4.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

ETSV Hamburg (A) 72.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Paloma face ETSV Hamburg in Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paloma a 5% chance, the draw 23% and ETSV Hamburg 72%, so ETSV Hamburg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Paloma and 4.0 for ETSV Hamburg (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paloma are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 2.36 for ETSV Hamburg. This match finished 3-2.

Paloma vs ETSV Hamburg Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg

Match Preview & Prediction

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