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HEBC vs Nikola Tesla Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg

Hamburg - 32 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 08:45

HEBC

PPG 1.53 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Nikola Tesla

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-12.7%0-23.7%0-33.4%0-4+4.6%1 1-01.8%1-15.0%1-26.9%1-36.4%1-4+8.6%2 2-01.7%2-14.7%2-26.5%2-36.0%2-4+8.1%3 3-01.1%3-13.0%3-24.1%3-33.8%3-4+5.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-12.1%4+-23.0%4+-32.7%4+-4+3.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.9% — — —

Draw 24.3% — — —

Away win 47.8% — — —

Over 2.5 68.1% — — —

Over 3.5 68.1% — — —

BTTS 65.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 61%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)2.8 BTTS prob65.5%

A 48% / xG 1.9-2.8 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 6.9%

#2 2–2 6.5%

#3 1–3 6.4%

#4 2–3✓ 6.0%

#5 1–1 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HEBC1.9

Nikola Tesla2.8

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.1% · O3.5 PROB 68.1%

Form & verdict PPG

HEBC · PPG 1.53

NIKOLA TESLA · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.53) > Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

HEBC (H) 27.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Nikola Tesla (A) 47.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

HEBC face Nikola Tesla in Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HEBC a 28% chance, the draw 24% and Nikola Tesla 48%, so Nikola Tesla are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for HEBC and 2.8 for Nikola Tesla (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HEBC are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.14 for Nikola Tesla. This match finished 2-3.

HEBC vs Nikola Tesla Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg

Match Preview & Prediction

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