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Obolon vs SK Poltava Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Matchday 24 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 15:00

Obolon

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLWL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

SK Poltava

PPG 0.45 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 52% chance

Model probability 54.4% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-17.0%0-23.9%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.4%1-111.6%1-26.4%1-32.4%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.6%2-19.6%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.7%3-15.3%3-22.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.2%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.0% 69.0% 1.45 -27.5%

Draw 24.4% 25.6% 3.90 -4.8%

Away win 25.7% 15.6% 6.40 +64.5%

Over 2.5 52.4% 52.6% 1.90 -0.4%

Over 3.5 30.2% 31.3% 3.20 -3.4%

BTTS 54.4% 51.3% 1.95 +6.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 13.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.4%

H 50% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.6%

#2 1–0 10.4%

#3 2–1 9.6%

#4 2–0 8.6%

#5 0–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Obolon1.7

SK Poltava1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.4% · O3.5 PROB 30.2%

Form & verdict PPG

OBOLON · PPG 1.00

SK POLTAVA · PPG 0.45

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.45)

Win probability 1X2

Obolon (H) 50.0%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -27.5%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -4.8%

SK Poltava (A) 25.7%

ODDS 6.40 · IMPLIED 15.6% EV +64.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Obolon face SK Poltava in Ukraine - Premier League on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Obolon a 50% chance, the draw 24% and SK Poltava 26%, so Obolon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Obolon and 1.1 for SK Poltava (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Obolon are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.45 for SK Poltava. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +64.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Obolon vs SK Poltava Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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