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Emelec vs LDU Quito Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 22:00

Emelec

PPG 1.40 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

LDU Quito

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.1%0-112.3%0-24.7%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-017.1%1-113.1%1-25.0%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.1%2-16.9%2-22.7%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.2%3-12.5%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-10.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.0% 42.7% 2.34 -1.7%

Draw 32.0% 31.3% 3.20 +2.4%

Away win 25.9% 32.8% 3.05 -21.0%

Over 2.5 27.7% 44.4% 2.25 -37.7%

Over 3.5 11.3% 23.8% 4.20 -52.5%

BTTS 35.0% 52.6% 1.90 -33.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob35.0%

H 42% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 28% / NoBTTS 35%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 17.1%

#2 0–0 16.1%

#3 1–1 13.1%

#4 0–1 12.3%

#5 2–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Emelec1.1

LDU Quito0.8

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 27.7% · O3.5 PROB 11.3%

Form & verdict PPG

EMELEC · PPG 1.40

LDU QUITO · PPG 1.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.40) vs Away GOOD (1.80)

Win probability 1X2

Emelec (H) 42.0%

ODDS 2.34 · IMPLIED 42.7% EV -1.7%

Draw 32.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +2.4%

LDU Quito (A) 25.9%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -21.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Emelec face LDU Quito in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Emelec a 42% chance, the draw 32% and LDU Quito 26%, so Emelec are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Emelec and 0.8 for LDU Quito (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 28% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 35% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Emelec are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.80 for LDU Quito. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +2.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Emelec vs LDU Quito Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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