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I. del Valle vs Leones Norte Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 19:10

I. del Valle

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Leones Norte

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 84.4% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-12.0%0-20.4%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-013.8%1-15.1%1-21.0%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-017.5%2-16.5%2-21.2%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-014.8%3-15.5%3-21.0%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-017.4%4+-16.5%4+-21.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 84.4% 82.0% 1.22 +3.0%

Draw 11.9% 19.0% 5.25 -37.5%

Away win 3.7% 6.1% 16.50 -39.0%

Over 2.5 55.8% 54.6% 1.83 +2.1%

Over 3.5 33.4% 32.3% 3.10 +3.5%

BTTS 28.7% 39.2% 2.55 -26.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 74%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob28.7%

H 84% / xG 2.5-0.4 / O2.5 56% / NoBTTS 29%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 17.5%

#2 3–0 14.8%

#3 1–0 13.8%

#4 4–0 9.4%

#5 2–1✓ 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

I. del Valle2.5

Leones Norte0.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.8% · O3.5 PROB 33.4%

Form & verdict PPG

I. DEL VALLE · PPG 2.00

LEONES NORTE · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.00), Away POOR (0.60) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

I. del Valle (H) 84.4%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV +3.0%

Draw 11.9%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -37.5%

Leones Norte (A) 3.7%

ODDS 16.50 · IMPLIED 6.1% EV -39.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

I. del Valle face Leones Norte in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives I. del Valle a 84% chance, the draw 12% and Leones Norte 4%, so I. del Valle are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for I. del Valle and 0.4 for Leones Norte (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 29% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, I. del Valle are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.60 for Leones Norte. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +3.5%. This match finished 2-1.

I. del Valle vs Leones Norte Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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