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Talavera CF vs Real Madrid B Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 34 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 19:00

Talavera CF

PPG 1.44 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Real Madrid B

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-18.4%0-24.7%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.0%1-112.4%1-26.9%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.1%2-19.1%2-25.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.0%3-14.4%3-22.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.3%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.2% 39.2% 2.55 +15.3%

Draw 26.0% 33.3% 3.00 -22.0%

Away win 28.8% 37.0% 2.70 -22.2%

Over 2.5 47.9% 48.8% 2.05 -1.8%

Over 3.5 26.2% 27.4% 3.65 -4.4%

BTTS 51.9% 57.1% 1.75 -9.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob51.9%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 11.0%

#3 2–1 9.1%

#4 0–1 8.4%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Talavera CF1.5

Real Madrid B1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.9% · O3.5 PROB 26.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TALAVERA CF · PPG 1.44

REAL MADRID B · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.44) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Talavera CF (H) 45.2%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +15.3%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -22.0%

Real Madrid B (A) 28.8%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -22.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Talavera CF face Real Madrid B in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Talavera CF a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Real Madrid B 29%, so Talavera CF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Talavera CF and 1.1 for Real Madrid B (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Talavera CF are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.00 for Real Madrid B. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +15.3%. This match finished 1-2.

Talavera CF vs Real Madrid B Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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