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Borac 1926 vs Dubocica Prediction— Serbia - Prva Liga

Relegation Group - 31 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 14:00

Borac 1926

PPG 1.47 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Dubocica

PPG 0.53 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.3%0-111.8%0-26.2%0-32.2%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.8%1-113.4%1-27.0%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.2%2-17.6%2-24.0%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.7%3-12.9%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.5% 63.7% 1.57 -41.1%

Draw 29.2% 28.6% 3.50 +2.2%

Away win 33.2% 19.2% 5.20 +72.6%

Over 2.5 37.3% 46.5% 2.15 -19.8%

Over 3.5 17.7% — — —

BTTS 44.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -32.6%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob44.1%

D 29% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 1–0 12.8%

#3 0–1 11.8%

#4 0–0 11.3%

#5 2–1✓ 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Borac 19261.1

Dubocica1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.3% · O3.5 PROB 17.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BORAC 1926 · PPG 1.47

DUBOCICA · PPG 0.53

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.47) vs P(Home)=37.5%

Win probability 1X2

Borac 1926 (H) 37.5%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -41.1%

Draw 29.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +2.2%

Dubocica (A) 33.2%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV +72.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Borac 1926 face Dubocica in Serbia - Prva Liga on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Borac 1926 a 38% chance, the draw 29% and Dubocica 33%, so Borac 1926 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Borac 1926 and 1.0 for Dubocica (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Borac 1926 are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 0.53 for Dubocica. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +72.6%. This match finished 2-1.

Borac 1926 vs Dubocica Prediction— Serbia - Prva Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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