Today / India - Indian Super League / Odisha FC vs Mohammedan

Odisha FC vs Mohammedan Prediction— India - Indian Super League

Regular Season - 9 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 14:00

Odisha FC

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Mohammedan

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.1% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-17.5%0-24.3%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.4%1-111.8%1-26.8%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.2%2-19.4%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.3%3-15.0%3-22.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.8%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.6% 65.4% 1.53 -27.2%

Draw 24.9% 26.7% 3.75 -6.6%

Away win 27.4% 17.4% 5.75 +57.6%

Over 2.5 51.3% 54.6% 1.83 -6.1%

Over 3.5 29.2% 32.3% 3.10 -9.5%

BTTS 54.1% 54.1% 1.85 +0.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.1%

H 48% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.8%

#2 1–0 10.4%

#3 2–1 9.4%

#4 2–0 8.2%

#5 0–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Odisha FC1.6

Mohammedan1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.3% · O3.5 PROB 29.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ODISHA FC · PPG 1.00

MOHAMMEDAN · PPG 0.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Odisha FC (H) 47.6%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -27.2%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -6.6%

Mohammedan (A) 27.4%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +57.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Odisha FC face Mohammedan in India - Indian Super League on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Odisha FC a 48% chance, the draw 25% and Mohammedan 27%, so Odisha FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Odisha FC and 1.1 for Mohammedan (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Odisha FC are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.00 for Mohammedan. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +57.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Odisha FC vs Mohammedan Prediction— India - Indian Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

More India - Indian Super League Predictions