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Ituzaingo vs Excursionistas Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 18:30

Ituzaingo

PPG 0.60 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Excursionistas

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.60) vs Home POOR (0.60)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-029.1%0-127.3%0-212.8%0-34.0%0-4+1.1%1 1-08.6%1-18.1%1-23.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-01.3%2-11.2%2-20.6%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-00.1%3-10.1%3-20.1%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 11.4% — — —

Draw 37.8% — — —

Away win 50.8% — — —

Over 2.5 12.8% — — —

Over 3.5 3.7% — — —

BTTS 15.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)0.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob15.6%

A 51% / xG 0.3-0.9 / U2.5 13% / NoBTTS 16%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 29.1%

#2 0–1 27.3%

#3 0–2 12.8%

#4 1–0 8.6%

#5 1–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ituzaingo0.3

Excursionistas0.9

COMBINED 1.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 12.8% · O3.5 PROB 3.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ITUZAINGO · PPG 0.60

EXCURSIONISTAS · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.60) vs Home POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Ituzaingo (H) 11.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 37.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Excursionistas (A) 50.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ituzaingo face Excursionistas in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ituzaingo a 11% chance, the draw 38% and Excursionistas 51%, so Excursionistas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.3 for Ituzaingo and 0.9 for Excursionistas (1.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 13% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 16% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ituzaingo are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 1.60 for Excursionistas. This match finished 1-3.

Ituzaingo vs Excursionistas Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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