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Defensores U. vs Deportivo Merlo Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 18:30

Defensores U.

PPG 1.60 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Deportivo Merlo

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.60), Away GOOD (1.60)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.0%0-17.9%0-22.6%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.5%1-111.6%1-23.8%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.8%2-18.4%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.2%3-14.1%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-12.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.5% — — —

Draw 26.7% — — —

Away win 16.9% — — —

Over 2.5 35.6% — — —

Over 3.5 16.5% — — —

BTTS 37.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob37.2%

H 56% / xG 1.5-0.7 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 37%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.5%

#2 2–0 12.8%

#3 0–0 12.0%

#4 1–1✓ 11.6%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Defensores U.1.5

Deportivo Merlo0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.6% · O3.5 PROB 16.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DEFENSORES U. · PPG 1.60

DEPORTIVO MERLO · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.60), Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Defensores U. (H) 56.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Deportivo Merlo (A) 16.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Defensores U. face Deportivo Merlo in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Defensores U. a 56% chance, the draw 27% and Deportivo Merlo 17%, so Defensores U. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Defensores U. and 0.7 for Deportivo Merlo (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 37% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Defensores U. are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.60 for Deportivo Merlo. This match finished 1-1.

Defensores U. vs Deportivo Merlo Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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