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Tikves vs Shkendija Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Regular Season - 28 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 13:00

Tikves

PPG 1.43 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Shkendija

PPG 2.46 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-113.3%0-211.9%0-37.0%0-4+4.7%1 1-06.1%1-110.8%1-29.6%1-35.7%1-4+3.8%2 2-02.5%2-14.4%2-23.9%2-32.3%2-4+1.6%3 3-00.7%3-11.2%3-21.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 16.7% 20.0% 5.00 -16.5%

Draw 22.9% 25.6% 3.90 -10.7%

Away win 60.4% 65.4% 1.53 -7.6%

Over 2.5 48.0% 51.3% 1.95 -6.4%

Over 3.5 26.3% — — —

BTTS 46.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 6.8%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob46.3%

A 60% / xG 0.8-1.8 / O2.5 48% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 13.3%

#2 0–2 11.9%

#3 1–1 10.8%

#4 1–2 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tikves0.8

Shkendija1.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.0% · O3.5 PROB 26.3%

Form & verdict PPG

TIKVES · PPG 1.43

SHKENDIJA · PPG 2.46

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.46) vs Home AVERAGE (1.43)

Win probability 1X2

Tikves (H) 16.7%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -16.5%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -10.7%

Shkendija (A) 60.4%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -7.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tikves face Shkendija in Macedonia - First League on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tikves a 17% chance, the draw 23% and Shkendija 60%, so Shkendija are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Tikves and 1.8 for Shkendija (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tikves are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 2.46 for Shkendija. This match finished 1-4.

Tikves vs Shkendija Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Macedonia - First League Predictions