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Argentino Merlo vs UAI Urquiza Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 18:30

Argentino Merlo

PPG 1.60 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

UAI Urquiza

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-039.1%0-18.2%0-20.9%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-028.6%1-16.0%1-20.6%1-30.0%1-4+0.0%2 2-010.4%2-12.2%2-20.2%2-30.0%2-4+0.0%3 3-02.5%3-10.5%3-20.1%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.0% — — —

Draw 45.3% — — —

Away win 9.8% — — —

Over 2.5 6.9% — — —

Over 3.5 1.5% — — —

BTTS 9.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.2 BTTS prob9.8%

H 45% / xG 0.7-0.2 / U2.5 7% / NoBTTS 10%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 39.1%

#2 1–0 28.6%

#3 2–0 10.4%

#4 0–1 8.2%

#5 1–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Argentino Merlo0.7

UAI Urquiza0.2

COMBINED 0.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 6.9% · O3.5 PROB 1.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ARGENTINO MERLO · PPG 1.60

UAI URQUIZA · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.60) > Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Argentino Merlo (H) 45.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 45.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

UAI Urquiza (A) 9.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Argentino Merlo face UAI Urquiza in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Argentino Merlo a 45% chance, the draw 45% and UAI Urquiza 10%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.7 for Argentino Merlo and 0.2 for UAI Urquiza (0.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 7% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 10% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Argentino Merlo are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.80 for UAI Urquiza. This match finished 0-2.

Argentino Merlo vs UAI Urquiza Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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