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KF Tirana vs Partizani T. Prediction— Albania - Superliga

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 17:00

KF Tirana

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Partizani T.

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.8% vs bookmaker-implied 43.5% — a clear edge.

+19.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-18.2%0-23.6%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.1%1-112.2%1-25.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.5%2-19.1%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.2%3-14.5%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.4%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.8% 43.5% 2.30 +19.1%

Draw 26.3% 33.3% 3.00 -21.1%

Away win 21.9% 34.7% 2.88 -36.9%

Over 2.5 42.0% 42.6% 2.35 -1.3%

Over 3.5 21.3% — — —

BTTS 45.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -61.7%

Bet Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob45.0%

H 52% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.1%

#2 1–1 12.2%

#3 2–0 10.5%

#4 0–0 9.5%

#5 2–1✓ 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KF Tirana1.5

Partizani T.0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.0% · O3.5 PROB 21.3%

Form & verdict PPG

KF TIRANA · PPG 1.00

PARTIZANI T. · PPG 1.38

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.00) vs Away AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

KF Tirana (H) 51.8%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +19.1%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -21.1%

Partizani T. (A) 21.9%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -36.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

KF Tirana face Partizani T. in Albania - Superliga on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KF Tirana a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Partizani T. 22%, so KF Tirana are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for KF Tirana and 0.9 for Partizani T. (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KF Tirana are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.38 for Partizani T.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +19.1%. This match finished 2-1.

KF Tirana vs Partizani T. Prediction— Albania - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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