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Mushuc Runa vs D. Cuenca Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 16:45

Mushuc Runa

PPG 2.20 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

D. Cuenca

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.2% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a clear edge.

+12.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.2%0-17.5%0-22.1%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.3%1-110.9%1-23.1%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.1%2-18.0%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.9%3-13.9%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-12.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.2% 52.6% 1.90 +12.5%

Draw 26.5% 30.8% 3.25 -13.9%

Away win 14.3% 23.8% 4.20 -39.9%

Over 2.5 33.0% 44.4% 2.25 -25.8%

Over 3.5 14.8% 23.8% 4.20 -37.8%

BTTS 33.1% 51.3% 1.95 -35.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob33.1%

H 59% / xG 1.5-0.6 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 33%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.3%

#2 2–0 14.1%

#3 0–0 13.2%

#4 1–1 10.9%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mushuc Runa1.5

D. Cuenca0.6

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.0% · O3.5 PROB 14.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MUSHUC RUNA · PPG 2.20

D. CUENCA · PPG 1.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.20) > Away GOOD (1.80)

Win probability 1X2

Mushuc Runa (H) 59.2%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV +12.5%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -13.9%

D. Cuenca (A) 14.3%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -39.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mushuc Runa face D. Cuenca in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mushuc Runa a 59% chance, the draw 27% and D. Cuenca 14%, so Mushuc Runa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Mushuc Runa and 0.6 for D. Cuenca (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 33% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mushuc Runa are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 1.80 for D. Cuenca. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +12.5%. This match finished 4-1.

Mushuc Runa vs D. Cuenca Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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