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Ponferradina vs Tenerife Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 34 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 16:30

Ponferradina

PPG 1.63 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Tenerife

PPG 2.06 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-020.3%0-117.3%0-27.4%0-32.1%0-4+0.5%1 1-015.1%1-112.8%1-25.5%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-05.6%2-14.8%2-22.0%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.4%3-11.2%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.3% 27.8% 3.60 +5.5%

Draw 35.3% 36.4% 2.75 -2.9%

Away win 35.4% 46.5% 2.15 -23.9%

Over 2.5 21.5% 37.0% 2.70 -41.9%

Over 3.5 7.8% — — —

BTTS 30.0% 46.5% 2.15 -35.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob30.0%

D 35% / xG 0.7-0.9 / U2.5 22% / NoBTTS 30%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 20.3%

#2 0–1 17.3%

#3 1–0 15.1%

#4 1–1✓ 12.8%

#5 0–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ponferradina0.7

Tenerife0.9

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 21.5% · O3.5 PROB 7.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PONFERRADINA · PPG 1.63

TENERIFE · PPG 2.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.63) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.06)

Win probability 1X2

Ponferradina (H) 29.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +5.5%

Draw 35.3%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -2.9%

Tenerife (A) 35.4%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -23.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ponferradina face Tenerife in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ponferradina a 29% chance, the draw 35% and Tenerife 35%, so Tenerife are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Ponferradina and 0.9 for Tenerife (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 22% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 30% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ponferradina are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 2.06 for Tenerife. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Ponferradina vs Tenerife Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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