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Dynamo Kyiv vs Zorya Luhansk Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Matchday 24 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 12:30

Dynamo Kyiv

PPG 1.82 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Zorya Luhansk

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 64% chance

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-14.1%0-22.3%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.1%1-19.0%1-25.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.8%2-19.8%2-25.5%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.4%3-17.2%3-24.0%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-16.5%4+-23.6%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.9% 76.9% 1.30 -19.5%

Draw 19.8% 21.7% 4.60 -8.9%

Away win 18.3% 11.1% 9.00 +64.7%

Over 2.5 64.1% 63.7% 1.57 +0.6%

Over 3.5 42.1% 41.7% 2.40 +1.0%

BTTS 59.6% 54.6% 1.83 +9.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 13.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.6%

H 62% / xG 2.2-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.8%

#2 1–1 9.0%

#3 2–0 8.8%

#4 1–0 8.1%

#5 3–1✓ 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dynamo Kyiv2.2

Zorya Luhansk1.1

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 42.1%

Form & verdict PPG

DYNAMO KYIV · PPG 1.82

ZORYA LUHANSK · PPG 1.18

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

64%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.82) > Away AVERAGE (1.18)

Win probability 1X2

Dynamo Kyiv (H) 61.9%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -19.5%

Draw 19.8%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -8.9%

Zorya Luhansk (A) 18.3%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV +64.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dynamo Kyiv face Zorya Luhansk in Ukraine - Premier League on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dynamo Kyiv a 62% chance, the draw 20% and Zorya Luhansk 18%, so Dynamo Kyiv are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Dynamo Kyiv and 1.1 for Zorya Luhansk (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dynamo Kyiv are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.18 for Zorya Luhansk. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +64.7%. This match finished 3-1.

Dynamo Kyiv vs Zorya Luhansk Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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