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Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura
Apertura - 13
Parque Artigas· Las Piedras
Saturday, April 25, 2026
15:00
Juventud
PPG 1.00
1-1
HIT MostLikelyScore
Liverpool M.
PPG 1.83
Home· +17.5%
✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum
90% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Home
35.6%
Odds: 3.30
EV: +17.5%
Draw
27.1%
Odds: 3.25
EV: -11.9%
Away
37.3%
Odds: 2.08
EV: -22.4%
Model lean:
BTTS
Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Draw ✘
Goals Markets
Over 2.5
45.1%
Odds: 2.10
-5.3%
Over 3.5
23.8%
Odds: 3.70
-11.9%
BTTS
50.5%
Odds: 1.80
-9.1%
O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔
BTTS YES → YES ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st
1-1
✔
2nd
0-1
✘
3rd
1-0
✘
4th
0-0
✘
5th
1-2
✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Juventud
1.22
Liverpool M.
1.26
Model Suggestion
BTTS
-9.1%
NO VALUE BET
No value bet:
model leans BTTS, but EV is -9.1% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV:
Home (+17.5%) — probability too low to qualify.
Verdict & Form
✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum
90%
UPSET_VALUE
Away momentum: GOOD form (1.83) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)