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Juventud vs Liverpool M. Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Apertura - 13 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 15:00

Juventud

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Liverpool M.

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.5% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-110.5%0-26.6%0-32.8%0-4+1.1%1 1-010.2%1-112.9%1-28.1%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.3%2-17.9%2-24.9%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.6%3-13.2%3-22.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.3%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.6% 30.3% 3.30 +17.5%

Draw 27.1% 30.8% 3.25 -11.9%

Away win 37.3% 48.1% 2.08 -22.4%

Over 2.5 45.1% 47.6% 2.10 -5.3%

Over 3.5 23.8% 27.0% 3.70 -11.9%

BTTS 50.5% 55.6% 1.80 -9.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 7.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 16%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob50.5%

A 37% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 45% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.9%

#2 0–1 10.5%

#3 1–0 10.2%

#4 0–0 8.4%

#5 1–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Juventud1.2

Liverpool M.1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.1% · O3.5 PROB 23.8%

Form & verdict PPG

JUVENTUD · PPG 1.00

LIVERPOOL M. · PPG 1.83

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.83) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Juventud (H) 35.6%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +17.5%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -11.9%

Liverpool M. (A) 37.3%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV -22.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Juventud face Liverpool M. in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Juventud a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Liverpool M. 37%, so Liverpool M. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Juventud and 1.3 for Liverpool M. (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Juventud are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.83 for Liverpool M.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +17.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Juventud vs Liverpool M. Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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