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Rukh Lviv vs Karpaty Lviv Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Matchday 25 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 15:00

Rukh Lviv

PPG 0.91 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLLL

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Karpaty Lviv

PPG 1.58 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWL

// Model verdict

Away 60% chance

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.9%0-117.0%0-212.1%0-35.7%0-4+2.8%1 1-08.4%1-111.9%1-28.5%1-34.0%1-4+2.0%2 2-03.0%2-14.2%2-23.0%2-31.4%2-4+0.7%3 3-00.7%3-11.0%3-20.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 18.5% 20.8% 4.80 -11.2%

Draw 27.2% 27.8% 3.60 -2.1%

Away win 54.3% 61.7% 1.62 -12.0%

Over 2.5 35.7% 48.8% 2.05 -26.8%

Over 3.5 16.6% 27.0% 3.70 -38.6%

BTTS 38.3% 51.3% 1.95 -25.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 13.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob38.3%

A 54% / xG 0.7-1.4 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 38%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 17.0%

#2 0–2 12.1%

#3 0–0 11.9%

#4 1–1 11.9%

#5 1–2 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rukh Lviv0.7

Karpaty Lviv1.4

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.7% · O3.5 PROB 16.6%

Form & verdict PPG

RUKH LVIV · PPG 0.91

KARPATY LVIV · PPG 1.58

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

60%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.58) vs Home POOR (0.91)

Win probability 1X2

Rukh Lviv (H) 18.5%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -11.2%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -2.1%

Karpaty Lviv (A) 54.3%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -12.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rukh Lviv face Karpaty Lviv in Ukraine - Premier League on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rukh Lviv a 19% chance, the draw 27% and Karpaty Lviv 54%, so Karpaty Lviv are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Rukh Lviv and 1.4 for Karpaty Lviv (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rukh Lviv are averaging 0.91 points per game versus 1.58 for Karpaty Lviv. This match finished 0-3.

Rukh Lviv vs Karpaty Lviv Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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