Today / India - Indian Super League / Chennaiyin vs Sporting Delhi

Chennaiyin vs Sporting Delhi Prediction— India - Indian Super League

Regular Season - 9 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 11:30

Chennaiyin

PPG 0.33 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Sporting Delhi

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 59.1% vs bookmaker-implied 29.9% — a clear edge.

+98.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-114.0%0-212.0%0-36.8%0-4+4.3%1 1-06.5%1-111.1%1-29.5%1-35.4%1-4+3.4%2 2-02.6%2-14.4%2-23.8%2-32.1%2-4+1.3%3 3-00.7%3-11.2%3-21.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 17.2% 50.0% 2.00 -65.6%

Draw 23.7% 30.3% 3.30 -21.8%

Away win 59.1% 29.9% 3.35 +98.0%

Over 2.5 45.6% 54.1% 1.85 -15.6%

Over 3.5 24.2% 32.3% 3.10 -25.0%

BTTS 44.8% 59.9% 1.67 -25.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob44.8%

A 59% / xG 0.8-1.7 / O2.5 46% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 14.0%

#2 0–2 12.0%

#3 1–1 11.1%

#4 1–2 9.5%

#5 0–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chennaiyin0.8

Sporting Delhi1.7

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.6% · O3.5 PROB 24.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CHENNAIYIN · PPG 0.33

SPORTING DELHI · PPG 0.80

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.33) vs Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Chennaiyin (H) 17.2%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -65.6%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -21.8%

Sporting Delhi (A) 59.1%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +98.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chennaiyin face Sporting Delhi in India - Indian Super League on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chennaiyin a 17% chance, the draw 24% and Sporting Delhi 59%, so Sporting Delhi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Chennaiyin and 1.7 for Sporting Delhi (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chennaiyin are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 0.80 for Sporting Delhi. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +98.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Chennaiyin vs Sporting Delhi Prediction— India - Indian Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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