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Sporting W vs Rio Ave W Prediction— Portugal - 1a Divisão - Women

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 15:00

Sporting W

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Rio Ave W

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.00), Away POOR (0.43) - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.7%0-14.5%0-20.6%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-026.2%1-16.6%1-20.8%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-019.4%2-14.9%2-20.6%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-09.5%3-12.4%3-20.3%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-11.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 69.0% — — —

Draw 24.9% — — —

Away win 6.0% — — —

Over 2.5 25.1% — — —

Over 3.5 9.8% — — —

BTTS 17.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 73%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob17.2%

H 69% / xG 1.5-0.3 / U2.5 25% / NoBTTS 17%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 26.2%

#2 2–0 19.4%

#3 0–0 17.7%

#4 3–0 9.5%

#5 1–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sporting W1.5

Rio Ave W0.3

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.1% · O3.5 PROB 9.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTING W · PPG 2.00

RIO AVE W · PPG 0.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.00), Away POOR (0.43) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Sporting W (H) 69.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Rio Ave W (A) 6.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sporting W face Rio Ave W in Portugal - 1a Divisão - Women on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sporting W a 69% chance, the draw 25% and Rio Ave W 6%, so Sporting W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Sporting W and 0.3 for Rio Ave W (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 25% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 17% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sporting W are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.43 for Rio Ave W. This match finished 2-1.

Sporting W vs Rio Ave W Prediction— Portugal - 1a Divisão - Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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