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Puskas A. vs Ujpest Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Matchday 31 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 15:00

Puskas A.

PPG 1.07 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWD

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Ujpest

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 62% chance

Model probability 57.0% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-18.4%0-25.9%0-32.7%0-4+1.3%1 1-08.5%1-111.9%1-28.3%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.0%2-18.4%2-25.9%2-32.7%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.8%3-14.0%3-22.8%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.9%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.8% 44.6% 2.24 -15.3%

Draw 25.2% 30.3% 3.30 -16.8%

Away win 37.0% 34.0% 2.94 +8.8%

Over 2.5 53.3% 57.1% 1.75 -6.7%

Over 3.5 31.1% 35.1% 2.85 -11.4%

BTTS 57.0% 63.7% 1.57 -10.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -12.2%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob57.0%

H 38% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–0 8.5%

#3 2–1 8.4%

#4 0–1 8.4%

#5 1–2 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Puskas A.1.4

Ujpest1.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.3% · O3.5 PROB 31.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PUSKAS A. · PPG 1.07

UJPEST · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

62%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.07), Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Puskas A. (H) 37.8%

ODDS 2.24 · IMPLIED 44.6% EV -15.3%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -16.8%

Ujpest (A) 37.0%

ODDS 2.94 · IMPLIED 34.0% EV +8.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Puskas A. face Ujpest in Hungary - NB I on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Puskas A. a 38% chance, the draw 25% and Ujpest 37%, so Puskas A. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Puskas A. and 1.4 for Ujpest (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Puskas A. are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 1.29 for Ujpest. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +8.8%. This match finished 2-0.

Puskas A. vs Ujpest Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Match Preview & Prediction

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