Today / Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 / Pontevedra vs Celta Vigo B

Pontevedra vs Celta Vigo B Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 34 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:15

Pontevedra

PPG 1.69 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Celta Vigo B

PPG 1.63 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a clear edge.

+31.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-15.4%0-22.1%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.4%1-110.2%1-23.9%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.6%2-19.6%2-23.7%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.9%3-16.0%3-22.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.7%4+-14.4%4+-21.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.0% 48.8% 2.05 +31.2%

Draw 21.6% 31.3% 3.20 -30.9%

Away win 14.5% 29.4% 3.40 -50.7%

Over 2.5 49.3% 47.6% 2.10 +3.5%

Over 3.5 27.4% 26.0% 3.85 +5.5%

BTTS 45.2% 54.6% 1.83 -17.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob45.2%

H 64% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 49% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.4%

#2 2–0 12.6%

#3 1–1✓ 10.2%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 3–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pontevedra1.9

Celta Vigo B0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.3% · O3.5 PROB 27.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PONTEVEDRA · PPG 1.69

CELTA VIGO B · PPG 1.63

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.69), Away GOOD (1.63)

Win probability 1X2

Pontevedra (H) 64.0%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +31.2%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -30.9%

Celta Vigo B (A) 14.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -50.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pontevedra face Celta Vigo B in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pontevedra a 64% chance, the draw 22% and Celta Vigo B 14%, so Pontevedra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Pontevedra and 0.8 for Celta Vigo B (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pontevedra are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.63 for Celta Vigo B. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +31.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Pontevedra vs Celta Vigo B Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Predictions