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Osasuna B vs Arenteiro Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 34 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:15

Osasuna B

PPG 0.94 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Arenteiro

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.6%0-110.4%0-23.3%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.4%1-112.2%1-23.8%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.4%2-17.1%2-22.2%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.4%3-12.8%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.0%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.0% 46.5% 2.15 +5.3%

Draw 31.2% 32.3% 3.10 -3.3%

Away win 19.8% 30.8% 3.25 -35.6%

Over 2.5 26.8% 43.5% 2.30 -38.4%

Over 3.5 10.8% 23.1% 4.33 -53.2%

BTTS 32.1% 51.8% 1.93 -38.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob32.1%

H 49% / xG 1.2-0.6 / U2.5 27% / NoBTTS 32%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 19.4%

#2 0–0 16.6%

#3 1–1 12.2%

#4 2–0 11.4%

#5 0–1 10.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Osasuna B1.2

Arenteiro0.6

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 26.8% · O3.5 PROB 10.8%

Form & verdict PPG

OSASUNA B · PPG 0.94

ARENTEIRO · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.94) > Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Osasuna B (H) 49.0%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +5.3%

Draw 31.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -3.3%

Arenteiro (A) 19.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -35.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Osasuna B face Arenteiro in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Osasuna B a 49% chance, the draw 31% and Arenteiro 20%, so Osasuna B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Osasuna B and 0.6 for Arenteiro (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 27% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 32% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Osasuna B are averaging 0.94 points per game versus 0.50 for Arenteiro. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.3%. This match finished 1-0.

Osasuna B vs Arenteiro Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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