Today / Australia - Queensland Premier League / Holland Park H. vs Capalaba

Holland Park H. vs Capalaba Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Regular Season - 8 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 10:30

Holland Park H.

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Capalaba

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.4% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-16.7%0-23.4%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.1%1-111.4%1-25.8%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.7%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.4%3-15.5%3-22.8%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-13.5%4+-21.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.4% 65.4% 1.53 -18.3%

Draw 24.0% 22.7% 4.40 +5.6%

Away win 22.6% 21.7% 4.60 +4.0%

Over 2.5 51.3% 76.9% 1.30 -33.3%

Over 3.5 29.2% 56.5% 1.77 -48.3%

BTTS 52.4% 73.5% 1.36 -28.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -0.9%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.4%

H 53% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–0 11.1%

#3 2–1✓ 9.7%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 0–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Holland Park H.1.7

Capalaba1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.3% · O3.5 PROB 29.2%

Form & verdict PPG

HOLLAND PARK H. · PPG 1.00

CAPALABA · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength ...

48%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (2.00) strong but model favors Home (P=53.4%)

Win probability 1X2

Holland Park H. (H) 53.4%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -18.3%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +5.6%

Capalaba (A) 22.6%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +4.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Holland Park H. face Capalaba in Australia - Queensland Premier League on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Holland Park H. a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Capalaba 23%, so Holland Park H. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Holland Park H. and 1.0 for Capalaba (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Holland Park H. are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.00 for Capalaba. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +5.6%. This match finished 2-1.

Holland Park H. vs Capalaba Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Queensland Premier League Predictions