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Jamshedpur vs Chennaiyin Prediction— India - Indian Super League

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Jamshedpur

PPG 2.20 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Chennaiyin

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.9% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.8%0-16.7%0-21.0%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-026.5%1-18.2%1-21.3%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.1%2-15.0%2-20.8%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-06.5%3-12.0%3-20.3%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-10.8%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.9% 55.6% 1.80 +7.8%

Draw 30.8% 30.3% 3.30 +1.6%

Away win 9.4% 24.4% 4.10 -61.5%

Over 2.5 19.7% 50.0% 2.00 -60.6%

Over 3.5 6.9% 29.0% 3.45 -76.2%

BTTS 18.7% 55.6% 1.80 -66.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob18.7%

H 60% / xG 1.2-0.3 / U2.5 20% / NoBTTS 19%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 26.5%

#2 0–0 21.8%

#3 2–0 16.1%

#4 1–1 8.2%

#5 0–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jamshedpur1.2

Chennaiyin0.3

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 19.7% · O3.5 PROB 6.9%

Form & verdict PPG

JAMSHEDPUR · PPG 2.20

CHENNAIYIN · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.20) vs P(Home)=59.9%

Win probability 1X2

Jamshedpur (H) 59.9%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +7.8%

Draw 30.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +1.6%

Chennaiyin (A) 9.4%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -61.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jamshedpur face Chennaiyin in India - Indian Super League on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jamshedpur a 60% chance, the draw 31% and Chennaiyin 9%, so Jamshedpur are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Jamshedpur and 0.3 for Chennaiyin (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 20% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 19% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jamshedpur are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 1.00 for Chennaiyin. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +7.8%. This match finished 4-1.

Jamshedpur vs Chennaiyin Prediction— India - Indian Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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