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Nomme Utd vs Kuressaare Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Nomme Utd

PPG 1.50 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Kuressaare

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 6.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.2%0-10.3%0-20.3%0-30.1%0-4+0.1%1 1-00.9%1-11.4%1-21.2%1-30.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-02.0%2-13.3%2-22.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.2%3-15.1%3-24.2%3-32.3%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-013.4%4+-121.8%4+-217.7%4+-39.6%4+-4+5.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 84.7% 59.9% 1.67 +41.4%

Draw 8.2% 25.6% 3.90 -68.0%

Away win 7.2% 25.6% 3.90 -71.9%

Over 2.5 94.9% — — —

Over 3.5 87.1% — — —

BTTS 79.5% 66.7% 1.50 +19.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -14.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 73%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)4.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob79.5%

H 85% / xG 4.6-1.6 / O2.5 95% / BTTS 80%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–1 6.0%

#2 5–1 5.5%

#3 3–1 5.1%

#4 4–2 4.8%

#5 5–2 4.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nomme Utd4.6

Kuressaare1.6

COMBINED 6.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 94.9% · O3.5 PROB 87.1%

Form & verdict PPG

NOMME UTD · PPG 1.50

KURESSAARE · PPG 0.75

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Nomme Utd (H) 84.7%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV +41.4%

Draw 8.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -68.0%

Kuressaare (A) 7.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -71.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nomme Utd face Kuressaare in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nomme Utd a 85% chance, the draw 8% and Kuressaare 7%, so Nomme Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.6 for Nomme Utd and 1.6 for Kuressaare (6.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-1. There is a 95% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 80% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nomme Utd are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.75 for Kuressaare. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +41.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Nomme Utd vs Kuressaare Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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