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Worcester City vs Spalding Utd Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern Central

Regular Season - 42 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Worcester City

PPG 1.50 · HOME

4 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Spalding Utd

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.0% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-19.0%0-26.8%0-33.5%0-4+1.8%1 1-07.7%1-111.8%1-28.9%1-34.5%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.1%2-17.7%2-25.8%2-33.0%2-4+1.6%3 3-02.2%3-13.3%3-22.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.7% 42.0% 2.38 -22.2%

Draw 25.0% 33.3% 3.00 -25.0%

Away win 42.3% 38.2% 2.62 +10.8%

Over 2.5 53.7% — — —

Over 3.5 31.4% — — —

BTTS 57.0% 66.7% 1.50 -14.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -14.7%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-4

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob57.0%

A 42% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 0–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 8.9%

#4 1–0 7.7%

#5 2–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Worcester City1.3

Spalding Utd1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.4%

Form & verdict PPG

WORCESTER CITY · PPG 1.50

SPALDING UTD · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.50) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Worcester City (H) 32.7%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -22.2%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -25.0%

Spalding Utd (A) 42.3%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +10.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Worcester City face Spalding Utd in England - Non League Premier - Southern Central on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Worcester City a 33% chance, the draw 25% and Spalding Utd 42%, so Spalding Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Worcester City and 1.5 for Spalding Utd (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Worcester City are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 2.00 for Spalding Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +10.8%. This match finished 4-4.

Worcester City vs Spalding Utd Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern Central

Match Preview & Prediction

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