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Stourbridge vs Royston Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern Central

Regular Season - 42 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Stourbridge

PPG 1.15 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Royston

PPG 0.65 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 66.1% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-14.4%0-21.9%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.8%1-19.3%1-24.0%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.4%2-19.8%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.0%3-16.9%3-23.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.9%4+-15.9%4+-22.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.1% 63.7% 1.57 +3.8%

Draw 19.6% 27.8% 3.60 -29.4%

Away win 14.2% 21.7% 4.60 -34.7%

Over 2.5 56.9% — — —

Over 3.5 34.5% — — —

BTTS 50.7% 66.7% 1.50 -23.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -14.7%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob50.7%

H 66% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.4%

#2 1–0✓ 10.8%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–1 9.3%

#5 3–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stourbridge2.1

Royston0.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.9% · O3.5 PROB 34.5%

Form & verdict PPG

STOURBRIDGE · PPG 1.15

ROYSTON · PPG 0.65

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.15) > Away POOR (0.65)

Win probability 1X2

Stourbridge (H) 66.1%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV +3.8%

Draw 19.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -29.4%

Royston (A) 14.2%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -34.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stourbridge face Royston in England - Non League Premier - Southern Central on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stourbridge a 66% chance, the draw 20% and Royston 14%, so Stourbridge are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Stourbridge and 0.9 for Royston (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stourbridge are averaging 1.15 points per game versus 0.65 for Royston. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +3.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Stourbridge vs Royston Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern Central

Match Preview & Prediction

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