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Stamford vs Harborough Town Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern Central

Matchday 42 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Stamford

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWWD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Harborough Town

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDD

// Model verdict

Away 64% chance

Model probability 68.1% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a clear edge.

+10.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-114.7%0-214.2%0-39.2%0-4+6.9%1 1-04.9%1-19.4%1-29.1%1-35.9%1-4+4.5%2 2-01.6%2-13.0%2-22.9%2-31.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-00.3%3-10.7%3-20.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 11.5% 22.7% 4.40 -49.4%

Draw 20.4% 28.6% 3.50 -28.6%

Away win 68.1% 61.7% 1.62 +10.3%

Over 2.5 47.7% — — —

Over 3.5 26.0% — — —

BTTS 40.6% 63.7% 1.57 -36.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 3.2%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob40.6%

A 68% / xG 0.6-1.9 / O2.5 48% / NoBTTS 41%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 14.7%

#2 0–2 14.2%

#3 1–1 9.4%

#4 0–3 9.2%

#5 1–2 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stamford0.6

Harborough Town1.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.7% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

STAMFORD · PPG 1.60

HARBOROUGH TOWN · PPG 2.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

64%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs Home GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Stamford (H) 11.5%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -49.4%

Draw 20.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -28.6%

Harborough Town (A) 68.1%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV +10.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stamford face Harborough Town in England - Non League Premier - Southern Central on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stamford a 12% chance, the draw 20% and Harborough Town 68%, so Harborough Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Stamford and 1.9 for Harborough Town (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stamford are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 2.25 for Harborough Town. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +10.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Stamford vs Harborough Town Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern Central

Match Preview & Prediction

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