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Haras El Hodood vs Wadi Degla Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Relegation Group - 6 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Haras El Hodood

PPG 1.15 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Wadi Degla

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.0%0-116.0%0-27.5%0-32.4%0-4+0.7%1 1-014.1%1-113.3%1-26.3%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-05.9%2-15.5%2-22.6%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.6%3-11.5%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.3% 18.5% 5.40 +63.6%

Draw 33.2% 32.3% 3.10 +2.9%

Away win 36.5% 58.1% 1.72 -37.2%

Over 2.5 26.1% 41.7% 2.40 -37.4%

Over 3.5 10.4% 22.2% 4.50 -53.2%

BTTS 34.3% 47.6% 2.10 -28.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob34.3%

D 33% / xG 0.8-0.9 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 34%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.0%

#2 0–1✓ 16.0%

#3 1–0 14.1%

#4 1–1 13.3%

#5 0–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Haras El Hodood0.8

Wadi Degla0.9

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 26.1% · O3.5 PROB 10.4%

Form & verdict PPG

HARAS EL HODOOD · PPG 1.15

WADI DEGLA · PPG 1.50

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.15) vs Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Haras El Hodood (H) 30.3%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +63.6%

Draw 33.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +2.9%

Wadi Degla (A) 36.5%

ODDS 1.72 · IMPLIED 58.1% EV -37.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Haras El Hodood face Wadi Degla in Egypt - Premier League on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Haras El Hodood a 30% chance, the draw 33% and Wadi Degla 37%, so Wadi Degla are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Haras El Hodood and 0.9 for Wadi Degla (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 34% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Haras El Hodood are averaging 1.15 points per game versus 1.50 for Wadi Degla. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +63.6%. This match finished 0-1.

Haras El Hodood vs Wadi Degla Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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