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Ararat-Armenia vs Ararat Yerevan Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Regular Season - 23 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Ararat-Armenia

PPG 2.33 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Ararat Yerevan

PPG 0.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 97.2% vs bookmaker-implied 89.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-10.2%0-20.0%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-02.8%1-11.0%1-20.2%1-30.0%1-4+0.0%2 2-06.6%2-12.5%2-20.5%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-010.6%3-13.9%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-048.2%4+-118.0%4+-23.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 97.2% 89.3% 1.12 +8.9%

Draw 2.2% 15.6% 6.40 -85.9%

Away win 0.6% 5.3% 19.00 -88.6%

Over 2.5 88.7% 70.4% 1.42 +25.9%

Over 3.5 75.4% 48.8% 2.05 +54.6%

BTTS 30.9% 42.0% 2.38 -26.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -20.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 88%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)4.8 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob30.9%

H 97% / xG 4.8-0.4 / O2.5 89% / NoBTTS 31%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–0✓ 12.6%

#2 5–0 12.0%

#3 3–0 10.6%

#4 2–0 6.6%

#5 4–1 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ararat-Armenia4.8

Ararat Yerevan0.4

COMBINED 5.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 88.7% · O3.5 PROB 75.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ARARAT-ARMENIA · PPG 2.33

ARARAT YEREVAN · PPG 0.36

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.33), Away POOR (0.36) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Ararat-Armenia (H) 97.2%

ODDS 1.12 · IMPLIED 89.3% EV +8.9%

Draw 2.2%

ODDS 6.40 · IMPLIED 15.6% EV -85.9%

Ararat Yerevan (A) 0.6%

ODDS 19.00 · IMPLIED 5.3% EV -88.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ararat-Armenia face Ararat Yerevan in Armenia - Premier League on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ararat-Armenia a 97% chance, the draw 2% and Ararat Yerevan 1%, so Ararat-Armenia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.8 for Ararat-Armenia and 0.4 for Ararat Yerevan (5.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-0. There is a 89% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 31% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ararat-Armenia are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.36 for Ararat Yerevan. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +54.6%. This match finished 4-0.

Ararat-Armenia vs Ararat Yerevan Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Armenia - Premier League Predictions