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Stadeln vs ATSV Erlangen Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Bayern Nord

Bayern Nord - 31 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 13:00

Stadeln

PPG 1.46 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

ATSV Erlangen

PPG 0.79 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-14.0%0-23.3%0-31.8%0-4+1.1%1 1-05.0%1-18.2%1-26.8%1-33.7%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.2%2-18.6%2-27.1%2-33.9%2-4+2.3%3 3-03.6%3-15.9%3-24.9%3-32.7%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-15.0%4+-24.1%4+-32.3%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.0% — — —

Draw 21.1% — — —

Away win 31.0% — — —

Over 2.5 72.0% — — —

Over 3.5 51.2% — — —

BTTS 70.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 26%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob70.7%

H 48% / xG 2.1-1.6 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 71%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.6%

#2 1–1 8.2%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 1–2 6.8%

#5 3–1 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stadeln2.1

ATSV Erlangen1.6

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.0% · O3.5 PROB 51.2%

Form & verdict PPG

STADELN · PPG 1.46

ATSV ERLANGEN · PPG 0.79

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.46) > Away POOR (0.79)

Win probability 1X2

Stadeln (H) 48.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

ATSV Erlangen (A) 31.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Stadeln face ATSV Erlangen in Germany - Oberliga - Bayern Nord on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stadeln a 48% chance, the draw 21% and ATSV Erlangen 31%, so Stadeln are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Stadeln and 1.6 for ATSV Erlangen (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 71% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stadeln are averaging 1.46 points per game versus 0.79 for ATSV Erlangen. This match finished 1-0.

Stadeln vs ATSV Erlangen Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Bayern Nord

Match Preview & Prediction

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