Today / Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg / Curslack-N. vs Sasel

Curslack-N. vs Sasel Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg

Hamburg - 32 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 13:00

Curslack-N.

PPG 0.47 · HOME

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Sasel

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 10.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.0%0-10.0%0-20.1%0-30.3%0-4+20.1%1 1-00.0%1-10.0%1-20.2%1-30.5%1-4+31.9%2 2-00.0%2-10.0%2-20.1%2-30.4%2-4+25.2%3 3-00.0%3-10.0%3-20.1%3-30.2%3-4+13.3%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.1%4+-4+7.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 0.4% — — —

Draw 1.1% — — —

Away win 98.5% — — —

Over 2.5 99.8% — — —

Over 3.5 99.3% — — —

BTTS 79.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)9.0 BTTS prob79.4%

A 98% / xG 1.6-9.0 / O2.5 100% / BTTS 79%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–5 1.9%

#2 2–5 1.5%

#3 0–5 1.2%

#4 1–4 1.1%

#5 2–4✓ 0.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Curslack-N.1.6

Sasel9.0

COMBINED 10.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 99.8% · O3.5 PROB 99.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CURSLACK-N. · PPG 0.47

SASEL · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.29) vs Home POOR (0.47)

Win probability 1X2

Curslack-N. (H) 0.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 1.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sasel (A) 98.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Curslack-N. face Sasel in Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Curslack-N. a 0% chance, the draw 1% and Sasel 99%, so Sasel are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Curslack-N. and 9.0 for Sasel (10.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-5. There is a 100% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 79% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Curslack-N. are averaging 0.47 points per game versus 1.29 for Sasel. This match finished 2-4.

Curslack-N. vs Sasel Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg

Match Preview & Prediction

More Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg Predictions