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Kisvarda vs DVTK Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Matchday 31 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 12:30

Kisvarda

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

DVTK

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 59% chance

Model probability 54.0% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-16.8%0-23.7%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.5%1-111.4%1-26.2%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.9%2-19.7%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.0%3-15.4%3-23.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.4%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.5% 62.1% 1.61 -17.1%

Draw 24.1% 26.7% 3.75 -9.6%

Away win 24.4% 20.0% 5.00 +22.0%

Over 2.5 52.5% 59.9% 1.67 -12.3%

Over 3.5 30.3% 37.7% 2.65 -19.7%

BTTS 54.0% 60.6% 1.65 -10.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -12.2%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.0%

H 52% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–0 10.5%

#3 2–1 9.7%

#4 2–0 8.9%

#5 0–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kisvarda1.7

DVTK1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.5% · O3.5 PROB 30.3%

Form & verdict PPG

KISVARDA · PPG 1.67

DVTK · PPG 0.60

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

59%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.67) vs P(Home)=51.5%

Win probability 1X2

Kisvarda (H) 51.5%

ODDS 1.61 · IMPLIED 62.1% EV -17.1%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -9.6%

DVTK (A) 24.4%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +22.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kisvarda face DVTK in Hungary - NB I on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kisvarda a 52% chance, the draw 24% and DVTK 24%, so Kisvarda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Kisvarda and 1.1 for DVTK (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kisvarda are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.60 for DVTK. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +22.0%. This match finished 1-2.

Kisvarda vs DVTK Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Match Preview & Prediction

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