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Uthai Thani vs Port FC Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Regular Season - 28 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 12:00

Uthai Thani

PPG 1.46 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Port FC

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 58.5% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-18.5%0-26.7%0-33.5%0-4+2.0%1 1-07.3%1-111.4%1-29.0%1-34.7%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.9%2-17.7%2-26.0%2-33.2%2-4+1.8%3 3-02.2%3-13.4%3-22.7%3-31.4%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.6%4+-21.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.6% 23.1% 4.33 +41.2%

Draw 24.5% 27.0% 3.70 -9.3%

Away win 42.8% 59.9% 1.67 -28.5%

Over 2.5 55.7% 58.8% 1.70 -5.3%

Over 3.5 33.4% 37.0% 2.70 -9.8%

BTTS 58.5% 60.6% 1.65 -3.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob58.5%

A 43% / xG 1.3-1.6 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 0–1✓ 8.5%

#4 2–1 7.7%

#5 1–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Uthai Thani1.3

Port FC1.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.7% · O3.5 PROB 33.4%

Form & verdict PPG

UTHAI THANI · PPG 1.46

PORT FC · PPG 1.31

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.46), Away AVERAGE (1.31)

Win probability 1X2

Uthai Thani (H) 32.6%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +41.2%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -9.3%

Port FC (A) 42.8%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -28.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Uthai Thani face Port FC in Thailand - Thai League 1 on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Uthai Thani a 33% chance, the draw 25% and Port FC 43%, so Port FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Uthai Thani and 1.6 for Port FC (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Uthai Thani are averaging 1.46 points per game versus 1.31 for Port FC. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +41.2%. This match finished 0-1.

Uthai Thani vs Port FC Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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